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Prediction Market Platforms Compared: The Complete Guide
Last Updated: February 17, 2026
Odds Reference tracks data across every major prediction market platform. This guide compares them on the dimensions that matter: fees, regulation, market selection, deposit methods, and historical accuracy. Our analysis covers nine platforms ranging from CFTC-regulated exchanges to community forecasting systems.
Which Prediction Market Platforms Exist Today?
The prediction market landscape splits into three categories: regulated real-money exchanges, blockchain-based platforms, and community forecasting systems. Each model attracts a different user base and carries different risk profiles. The right choice depends on your regulatory jurisdiction, risk tolerance, and what you want to predict.
Real-money exchanges like Kalshi operate under federal oversight with standard bank deposits. Blockchain platforms like Polymarket use cryptocurrency infrastructure. Community platforms like Metaculus use no real money at all, relying on reputation scores instead.
How Do the Major Platforms Compare?
| Platform | Type | Regulated | Trading Fee | Deposit Method | Market Categories | US Access |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Exchange | CFTC-regulated | ~1-2c/contract | US bank, wire | Politics, economics, climate, tech | Yes |
| Polymarket | Blockchain | Offshore | Spread-based | Crypto (USDC) | Politics, sports, culture, crypto | No (real-money) |
| Metaculus | Community | N/A (no real money) | Free | None required | Science, AI, geopolitics, policy | Yes |
| Robinhood | Brokerage | SEC-regulated | Commission-free | Brokerage account | Events, politics | Yes |
| Gemini | Blockchain | State-licensed | Varies | Crypto, bank | Limited selection | Yes (most states) |
Kalshi and Polymarket dominate volume. Kalshi handles the regulated US market while Polymarket leads in global crypto-native trading. Metaculus occupies a distinct niche: no money changes hands, but its forecaster community has produced strong calibration results in academic evaluations.
How Do Prediction Market Fees Compare?
Fee structures vary by model. Kalshi charges a small per-contract fee on each trade, typically 1 to 2 cents per contract on a $1 settlement. Polymarket embeds its costs in the bid-ask spread rather than charging an explicit commission. Robinhood currently offers event contracts with zero commission, consistent with its equities model.
A $100 position on Kalshi costs roughly $1-2 in explicit fees. The same position on Polymarket might cost $0 in fees but $1-3 in spread depending on market liquidity. On thin markets, spread costs can significantly exceed fixed per-contract fees.
Our data across platforms shows that effective trading costs (fees plus spread) range from 1% on liquid markets to 5% or more on thinly traded contracts. Check the live dashboard for current spread data.
What Types of Markets Does Each Platform Offer?
Kalshi has expanded aggressively into political event contracts following its CFTC legal victory, and also covers economics (Fed rate decisions, GDP, inflation), climate events, and technology milestones. Polymarket offers the broadest selection globally, including categories that regulated US platforms cannot list.
Metaculus specializes in long-horizon scientific and technological questions — think AI benchmark timelines, space exploration milestones, and geopolitical scenarios over multi-year windows. These are questions that real-money platforms rarely list because capital lockup makes long-duration contracts unattractive.
Robinhood and Gemini offer narrower selections. Their strength is distribution to existing user bases rather than market breadth.
How Does Regulatory Status Affect Your Choice?
Regulation is the single biggest differentiator. Kalshi operates under CFTC oversight with segregated customer funds and regulatory reporting requirements. If the platform fails, your funds have the same protections as any regulated derivatives exchange.
Polymarket operates offshore. The platform has been widely used and maintains a strong reputation, but users have no US regulatory recourse. In 2024, the CFTC investigated Polymarket’s US operations, underscoring the legal ambiguity for American users.
For US residents prioritizing regulatory certainty, Kalshi and Robinhood are the clear choices. For users outside the US or those comfortable with crypto custody, Polymarket offers the deepest liquidity on many high-profile markets. See our full breakdown on prediction market legality for details.
How Does Platform Choice Affect Accuracy?
Our dataset tracks resolution data across platforms for the same events. Early results indicate that higher-liquidity platforms tend to converge on accurate prices faster. Markets with deep order books on Kalshi and Polymarket typically show tighter calibration than the same questions on lower-volume platforms.
Metaculus presents an interesting counterpoint: despite using no real money, its community forecasting often matches or exceeds the accuracy of real-money markets on questions where both offer predictions. The academic literature attributes this to Metaculus’s strong forecaster community and reputation incentives.
We publish cross-platform accuracy comparisons on the Odds Reference dashboard as our dataset grows.
Key Takeaways
- Kalshi is the default for US residents who want regulatory protection and bank deposits
- Polymarket offers the deepest global liquidity but operates outside US regulatory frameworks
- Metaculus provides strong forecasting accuracy without requiring any money
- Robinhood brings prediction markets to mainstream brokerage users with zero commission
- Effective costs (fees plus spread) matter more than headline fee rates — always check liquidity