Prediction Markets
What prediction markets are, how to read them, and platform-specific performance data.
Featured Content
Calculators & Tools
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Sports Event Contracts: Why They're the Legal Flashpoint
Election and economic contracts on Kalshi barely draw a legal challenge. Sports contracts have triggered lawsuits in 20+ states. Here's the gaming-vs-derivatives question driving every case.
Whale Tracker: Follow $10K+ Polymarket Trades Live
Track Polymarket whale trades over $10,000 in real time — wallet profiles, win rates, and a free leaderboard on OddsReference's on-chain dashboard.
Same Market, Different Price: Cross-Platform Divergence
Why the same event prices differently on Polymarket, Kalshi, and Metaculus — which gaps are structural, which are actionable, and how to track them live.
Kalshi Limit Orders: How the Pencil Icon Cuts Fees 75%
Kalshi defaults new traders to Quick Orders and taker fees. A pencil icon most miss switches to limit orders, cutting fees 75%. Here's the math.
Prediction Market Accuracy Report 2026: Calibration Data
How well-calibrated are Polymarket, Kalshi, and Metaculus? 2026 calibration data by probability bin, category, and platform -- plus honest limitations.
What Is Calibration in Forecasting? A Data-Driven Explainer
A forecaster is calibrated when 70% predictions come true 70% of the time. How calibration is measured, Brier scores explained, and top platforms compared.
Platforms
Metaculus: Platform Profile and Performance Data
Reference guide to Metaculus, the reputation-based prediction market platform. Scoring system, accuracy track record, forecaster community, and comparison data.
Manifold Markets: Play-Money Platform Profile (2026)
Manifold Markets profile: play-money forecasting, mana currency, LMSR mechanics, market creation, and accuracy vs. Kalshi and Polymarket.
Robinhood Prediction Markets: Fees & Platform Profile (2026)
Robinhood brings CFTC-regulated event contracts to 20M+ brokerage accounts -- fees, markets, and Kalshi comparison, verified July 2026.
Kalshi: Platform Profile and Performance Data
Complete reference for Kalshi — the first CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange. Fees, event contract mechanics, regulatory significance, and accuracy data.
Polymarket Platform Profile: Fees & US Access (2026)
Polymarket profile: CLOB mechanics, the ~2% settlement fee, and QCEX-powered US beta access. Fees and access status verified July 2026.
Reviews
Best Prediction Markets 2026: Fees & Accuracy Ranked
Kalshi, Polymarket, and DraftKings Predicts ranked by fees, regulation, and calibration -- updated July 18, 2026.
Kalshi Review 2026: Fees, Contracts & CFTC-Regulated Trading
Kalshi review: CFTC regulation, per-contract fees, state restrictions, and the payout dispute and lawsuit controversies -- rated across 6 categories.
Polymarket Review 2026: Fees, CLOB & US Beta Access
Polymarket review: CLOB mechanics, the ~2% settlement fee, QCEX US beta access, and how it compares to Kalshi. Verified July 2026.
DraftKings Predicts Review: 38-State Access & Fees (2026)
DraftKings Predicts review: 38-state coverage including CA and TX, CME Group routing, and the only prediction market with an existing affiliate program.
Other Verticals
Sports Betting
How odds are made, how to read them, and the data infrastructure behind sports betting.
37 guides
Browse guidesComparisons
Data-backed comparisons of platforms, sportsbooks, and odds quality.
15 guides
Browse guidesDaily Fantasy
DFS strategy, platform comparisons, and bankroll management for daily fantasy sports.
37 guides
Browse guidesOnline Casino
House edge analysis, game guides, and data-driven casino strategy.
42 guides
Browse guidesPoker
Poker strategy, odds calculation, and platform reviews with real data.
19 guides
Browse guidesLottery
Expected value analysis, odds breakdowns, and historical data for major lotteries.
5 guides
Browse guidesF1 Model
Elo-based championship predictions, circuit-specific win probabilities, and teammate pace analysis.
3 guides
Browse guides