Predictions · platforms
Kalshi: Platform Profile and Performance Data
Last Updated: February 17, 2026
Kalshi is the first and only fully CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange operating in the United States. Designated as a Designated Contract Market (DCM), it allows US residents to trade event contracts with the same regulatory protections available on commodity futures exchanges: segregated customer funds, regulatory oversight, and standardized settlement processes.
How Does Kalshi Work?
Kalshi operates a central limit order book (CLOB) for event contracts. Users place bids and asks, and the matching engine executes trades when prices cross. This is the same order book model used by stock and futures exchanges — if you have traded equities, the mechanics are familiar.
Each contract is binary: it settles at $1.00 if the defined event occurs, or $0.00 if it does not. Kalshi’s internal team defines resolution criteria for each market and handles settlement directly, unlike blockchain-based platforms that rely on external oracles.
The onboarding process is straightforward for US residents. Sign up, verify identity (KYC required by regulation), link a US bank account, deposit via ACH, and trade. No crypto wallet, no stablecoins, no bridging. This simplicity is Kalshi’s primary advantage over Polymarket for the US audience.
What Does Kalshi Charge?
Kalshi uses a per-contract fee model. Fees are typically in the range of 1-2 cents per contract, charged at the time of trade.
| Fee Type | Amount |
|---|---|
| Trading fee | ~1-2c per contract |
| ACH deposit | Free |
| Wire deposit | Free |
| ACH withdrawal | Free |
| Wire withdrawal | $25 |
| Debit card deposit | 3% processing fee |
The per-contract model means a $100 position (100 contracts at $1 settlement) costs $1-2 in total fees. This is competitive with Polymarket’s spread-based costs on liquid markets and cheaper on thinner markets where Polymarket spreads widen.
Our data shows that Kalshi’s effective total cost (fees plus spread) averages approximately 2-3% on markets with moderate volume. High-volume markets like Fed rate decisions carry tighter spreads, pushing effective costs below 2%.
What Markets Does Kalshi Offer?
Kalshi’s market selection has expanded dramatically since 2024. The platform now covers:
- Economics — Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, CPI readings, GDP growth, unemployment claims. These are the platform’s deepest and most liquid markets.
- Politics — Presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial elections. Made possible by the 2024 court ruling.
- Climate — Temperature records, hurricane activity, wildfire events.
- Technology — AI milestones, product launches, company metrics.
- Finance — Stock index levels, oil prices, crypto prices (settled in USD, not crypto).
The economics category is where Kalshi excels. Fed rate decision markets attract institutional-grade liquidity, and our data shows these markets have strong calibration against actual outcomes.
Why Does CFTC Regulation Matter?
CFTC regulation means several concrete protections for users:
Segregated funds. Customer deposits are held separately from Kalshi’s operating capital. If Kalshi went bankrupt, customer funds would be protected, unlike on unregulated offshore platforms.
Standardized settlement. Resolution criteria are pre-defined and publicly disclosed. Disputes follow a regulatory process rather than relying on token holder votes or community consensus.
Audit and compliance. Kalshi submits to regular regulatory examinations, financial reporting requirements, and market surveillance — the same compliance infrastructure that governs the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
The 2024 Kalshi v. CFTC case specifically addressed political event contracts. The CFTC had argued that election contracts constituted gaming and should be prohibited. A federal judge disagreed, ruling that Kalshi could list election event contracts. This decision opened the door for regulated political prediction markets in the US for the first time.
How Does Kalshi’s Accuracy Compare?
Our dataset tracks Kalshi’s resolved markets and compares calibration against other platforms. On economic events (Fed rate decisions, CPI readings), Kalshi shows strong calibration, particularly in the final 48 hours before resolution when liquidity concentrates.
Political markets are newer on Kalshi, so the accuracy dataset is still building. Early indications are consistent with what we observe on Polymarket: well-traded political markets converge on accurate prices, while thin markets are noisier.
Cross-platform accuracy comparisons are available on the Odds Reference dashboard. We update these as markets resolve.
Strengths and Limitations
Strengths: Full CFTC regulation with segregated funds, US bank deposit (no crypto required), clean order book with per-contract pricing, strong liquidity on economics markets, expanding political market coverage.
Limitations: US-only (international users cannot access), historically narrower market selection than Polymarket (though this gap is closing), lower total volume than Polymarket on most political markets, per-contract fees add up on frequent small trades.
For a full side-by-side comparison, see our platform comparison guide.