Polymarket: Platform Profile and Performance Data

Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market platform and the highest-volume prediction exchange globally. Built on the Polygon network and using USDC as its trading currency, it operates outside US regulatory jurisdiction and serves a primarily international user base. During the 2024 US presidential election cycle, Polymarket’s political markets became a widely cited source for election probability estimates, with cumulative volume exceeding $1 billion on presidential markets alone.

How Does Polymarket Work?

Polymarket operates as a hybrid between an automated market maker (AMM) and a central limit order book (CLOB). Early markets used AMM liquidity pools, but the platform has migrated to a CLOB system for major markets, providing tighter spreads and better price discovery.

Users connect a crypto wallet (or create one through the platform), deposit USDC, and trade binary or multi-outcome contracts. Each contract settles at $1.00 or $0.00 based on the outcome. The UMA optimistic oracle handles resolution: a proposer submits the outcome, and if unchallenged during a dispute window, settlement proceeds automatically.

The crypto infrastructure is the primary friction point. Users unfamiliar with blockchain wallets, stablecoins, and bridging face a steep onboarding curve compared to platforms like Kalshi where a bank account is sufficient.

What Does Polymarket Charge?

Polymarket does not charge an explicit trading commission. Revenue comes from the spread between bids and asks, and from fees charged to market makers who provide liquidity.

The absence of explicit trading fees can be misleading. On liquid markets (presidential elections, major economic events), effective costs through spread are minimal. On thinner markets, bid-ask spreads can exceed 5 cents, meaning effective trading costs approach 5%. Our data across Polymarket markets shows median spreads of approximately 2 cents on markets with daily volume above $50,000.

What Markets Does Polymarket Offer?

Polymarket lists the broadest selection of any prediction platform. Categories include politics, economics, crypto, sports, entertainment, science, technology, and current events. The platform allows community-driven market creation, which means niche questions appear faster than on regulated platforms with compliance review requirements.

The depth of coverage varies substantially by category. Political and crypto markets carry deep liquidity. Niche entertainment or science markets may have only a few thousand dollars in volume, making their prices less reliable as probability signals.

What Is Polymarket’s Regulatory Status?

Polymarket is incorporated outside the United States and is not regulated by the CFTC, SEC, or any US financial regulator. US persons are restricted from trading on the platform, though enforcement of this restriction relies on IP-based geofencing and self-attestation.

In January 2024, Polymarket settled with the CFTC for $1.4 million over charges of operating an unregistered trading facility. The platform subsequently blocked US IP addresses from accessing trading functionality while maintaining view-only access.

This regulatory posture represents both a strength and a limitation. Polymarket can list markets that US-regulated platforms cannot (certain political and international events), but users lack the protections available on CFTC-regulated exchanges like segregated customer funds.

How Does Polymarket’s Accuracy Compare?

Our dataset tracks Polymarket’s resolution data against other platforms. On events where both Polymarket and Kalshi offered markets, early data shows similar calibration on high-liquidity events. Polymarket’s deeper liquidity on certain political and crypto markets gives it a slight edge on those categories.

Where Polymarket struggles is on thin markets. The platform’s low barrier to market creation means many low-liquidity contracts exist with unreliable pricing. Our analysis flags markets below a volume threshold as low-confidence signals.

Cross-platform accuracy data is available on the Odds Reference dashboard, updated as markets resolve.

Strengths and Limitations

Strengths: Highest global liquidity, broadest market selection, no explicit trading fees, fast market creation for emerging events, strong brand recognition following the 2024 election cycle.

Limitations: Not available for US real-money trading, requires crypto wallet knowledge, offshore with no regulatory protections, UMA oracle resolution can be slower than centralized alternatives, thin liquidity on niche markets produces unreliable pricing.

For a full side-by-side comparison with other platforms, see our platform comparison guide.