Elo-based championship predictions, circuit-specific win probabilities, and teammate pace analysis.
Technical documentation of the Odds Reference F1 championship prediction model: data sources, feature engineering, Monte Carlo simulation, and calibration approach.
Our F1 model sorts every circuit into 4 types—power, downforce, street, mixed—and reweights each driver's win probability by track type before every race.
How Odds Reference splits F1 Elo into driver and constructor components, tracks 3-race momentum, and feeds Monte Carlo championship simulations.