Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 Odds Compared
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Cross-Platform Price Comparison
| Outcome | Gemini | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Person A | — | 0% | — |
| Person C | — | 0% | — |
| Person E | — | 0% | — |
| Person G | — | 0% | — |
| Person I | — | 0% | — |
| Person K | — | 0% | — |
| Person M | — | 0% | — |
| Person O | — | 0% | — |
| Person Q | — | 0% | — |
| Person S | — | 0% | — |
| Person U | — | 0% | — |
| Person W | — | 0% | — |
| Person Y | — | 0% | — |
| Person AA | — | 0% | — |
| Person AC | — | 0% | — |
| Person AE | — | 0% | — |
| Person AG | — | 0% | — |
| Person AI | — | 0% | — |
| Person AK | — | 0% | — |
| Person AM | — | 0% | — |
| Person AO | — | 0% | — |
| Person AQ | — | 0% | — |
| Person AS | — | 0% | — |
| Person AU | — | 0% | — |
| Person AW | — | 0% | — |
| Other | — | 0% | — |
| Person B | — | 0% | — |
| Person D | — | 0% | — |
| Person F | — | 0% | — |
| Person H | — | 0% | — |
| Person J | — | 0% | — |
| Person L | — | 0% | — |
| Person N | — | 0% | — |
| Person P | — | 0% | — |
| Person R | — | 0% | — |
| Person T | — | 0% | — |
| Person V | — | 0% | — |
| Person X | — | 0% | — |
| Person Z | — | 0% | — |
| Person AB | — | 0% | — |
| Person AD | — | 0% | — |
| Person AF | — | 0% | — |
| Person AH | — | 0% | — |
| Person AJ | — | 0% | — |
| Person AL | — | 0% | — |
| Person AN | — | 0% | — |
| Person AP | — | 0% | — |
| Person AR | — | 0% | — |
| Person AT | — | 0% | — |
| Person AV | — | 0% | — |
| Person AX | — | 0% | — |
| Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) | 0% | — | — |
| Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) | 0% | — | — |
| Francesca Albanese | 0% | — | — |
| Narges Mohammadi | 0% | — | — |
| Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue | 0% | — | — |
| City of Minneapolis and its people | 0% | — | — |
| Dario Amodei | 0% | — | — |
| Committee to Protect Journalists | 0% | — | — |
| Sam Altman | 0% | — | — |
| European Union | 0% | — | — |
| Save the Children | 0% | — | — |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 0% | 8% | 8.1pt |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | — | 0% | — |
| Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | — | 1% | — |
| Greta Thunberg | — | 1% | — |
| Khaled Mashal | — | 1% | — |
| Ahmed al-Sharaa | — | 1% | — |
| Vladimir Putin | — | 0% | — |
| Narendra Modi | — | 2% | — |
| Xi Jinping | — | 1% | — |
| Elon Musk | 0% | 1% | 0.7pt |
| Mohammed bin Salman | — | 1% | — |
| Pope Leo XIV | — | 5% | — |
| International Court of Justice | 0% | 2% | 2.3pt |
| Julian Assange | — | 1% | — |
| Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | — | 4% | — |
| Charlie Kirk | — | 1% | — |
| António Guterres | — | 2% | — |
| Donald Trump | 0% | 4% | 4.3pt |
| UNRWA | 0% | 10% | 10.1pt |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 0% | 8% | 7.5pt |
Prices shown as implied probability (%). Spread is the largest gap between platforms for that outcome — a wider spread means the platforms disagree more about the likely result.