Culture
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 Odds Compared
2 platforms $22.4M total volume Resolves October 10, 2026 Quoted 53d ago
Cross-Platform Price Comparison
1.6pt spread ≥ 1pt
| Outcome | Gemini | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Person A | — | 0% | — |
| Person C | — | 0% | — |
| Person E | — | 0% | — |
| Person G | — | 0% | — |
| Person I | — | 0% | — |
| Person K | — | 0% | — |
| Person M | — | 0% | — |
| Person Q | — | 0% | — |
| Person S | — | 0% | — |
| Person W | — | 0% | — |
| Person Y | — | 0% | — |
| Person AA | — | 0% | — |
| Person AC | — | 0% | — |
| Person AE | — | 0% | — |
| Person AG | — | 0% | — |
| Person AI | — | 0% | — |
| Person AK | — | 0% | — |
| Person AM | — | 0% | — |
| Person AO | — | 0% | — |
| Person AQ | — | 0% | — |
| Person AS | — | 0% | — |
| Person AU | — | 0% | — |
| Person AW | — | 0% | — |
| Other | — | 0% | — |
| Person B | — | 0% | — |
| Person D | — | 0% | — |
| Person F | — | 0% | — |
| Person H | — | 0% | — |
| Person J | — | 0% | — |
| Person N | — | 0% | — |
| Person P | — | 0% | — |
| Person R | — | 0% | — |
| Person T | — | 0% | — |
| Person V | — | 0% | — |
| Person X | — | 0% | — |
| Person Z | — | 0% | — |
| Person AD | — | 0% | — |
| Person AF | — | 0% | — |
| Person AH | — | 0% | — |
| Person AJ | — | 0% | — |
| Person AL | — | 0% | — |
| Person AP | — | 0% | — |
| Person AR | — | 0% | — |
| Person AT | — | 0% | — |
| Person AX | — | 0% | — |
| Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) | 0% | — | — |
| Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) | 0% | — | — |
| Francesca Albanese | 0% | — | — |
| Narges Mohammadi | 0% | — | — |
| City of Minneapolis and its people | 0% | — | — |
| Dario Amodei | 0% | — | — |
| Committee to Protect Journalists | 0% | — | — |
| Sam Altman | 0% | — | — |
| European Union | 0% | — | — |
| Save the Children | 0% | — | — |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 0% | 8% | 8.1pt |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | — | 0% | — |
| Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | — | 1% | — |
| Greta Thunberg | — | 1% | — |
| Khaled Mashal | — | 1% | — |
| Ahmed al-Sharaa | — | 1% | — |
| Vladimir Putin | — | 0% | — |
| Narendra Modi | — | 2% | — |
| Xi Jinping | — | 1% | — |
| Elon Musk | 0% | 1% | 0.7pt |
| Mohammed bin Salman | — | 1% | — |
| Pope Leo XIV | — | 5% | — |
| Person L | — | 0% | — |
| Person U | — | 0% | — |
| Person AN | — | 0% | — |
| Person AV | — | 0% | — |
| International Court of Justice | 0% | 2% | 2.3pt |
| Person O | — | 0% | — |
| Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue | 0% | — | — |
| Person AB | — | 0% | — |
| Julian Assange | — | 1% | — |
| Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | — | 4% | — |
| Charlie Kirk | — | 1% | — |
| António Guterres | — | 2% | — |
| Donald Trump | 0% | 4% | 4.3pt |
| UNRWA | 0% | 10% | 10.1pt |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 0% | 8% | 7.5pt |
Prices shown as implied probability (%). Spread is the largest gap between platforms for that outcome — a wider spread means the platforms disagree more about the likely result. A spread of 1+ point is stamped.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many platforms track "Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026"?
2 platforms currently quote this market: Gemini, Polymarket. Odds Reference aggregates live prices from each and shows them side by side.
What is the current frontrunner for "Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026"?
"UNRWA" is the current frontrunner at an implied probability of 10%, based on the latest prices across tracked platforms.
Do platforms disagree on the price for "Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026"?
Yes — the largest current disagreement is on "UNRWA", where prices differ by 10.1 percentage points across platforms.
When does "Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026" resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on October 10, 2026.