Sports
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 Odds Compared
3 platforms $203.0K total volume Resolves October 28, 2026 Quoted 5d ago
Frontrunner — 7 day trend
Harry Kane
56%
Cross-Platform Price Comparison
1.6pt spread ≥ 1pt
| Outcome | Gemini | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | — | — | 0% | — |
| X | — | — | 0% | — |
| Z | — | — | 0% | — |
| AB | — | — | 0% | — |
| AF | — | — | 0% | — |
| AH | — | — | 0% | — |
| AJ | — | — | 0% | — |
| AL | — | — | 0% | — |
| AN | — | — | 0% | — |
| AP | — | — | 0% | — |
| AR | — | — | 0% | — |
| P | — | — | 0% | — |
| R | — | — | 0% | — |
| T | — | — | 0% | — |
| AT | — | — | 0% | — |
| AV | — | — | 0% | — |
| AX | — | — | 0% | — |
| AZ | — | — | 0% | — |
| BB | — | — | 0% | — |
| BF | — | — | 0% | — |
| BH | — | — | 0% | — |
| BJ | — | — | 0% | — |
| BL | — | — | 0% | — |
| U | — | — | 0% | — |
| W | — | — | 0% | — |
| Y | — | — | 0% | — |
| AA | — | — | 0% | — |
| AC | — | — | 0% | — |
| AE | — | — | 0% | — |
| AG | — | — | 0% | — |
| AK | — | — | 0% | — |
| AO | — | — | 0% | — |
| AQ | — | — | 0% | — |
| AS | — | — | 0% | — |
| AU | — | — | 0% | — |
| AY | — | — | 0% | — |
| BN | — | — | 0% | — |
| BP | — | — | 0% | — |
| BR | — | — | 0% | — |
| BT | — | — | 0% | — |
| BV | — | — | 0% | — |
| BX | — | — | 0% | — |
| BZ | — | — | 0% | — |
| O | — | — | 0% | — |
| BA | — | — | 0% | — |
| BC | — | — | 0% | — |
| BG | — | — | 0% | — |
| BI | — | — | 0% | — |
| BK | — | — | 0% | — |
| BM | — | — | 0% | — |
| BO | — | — | 0% | — |
| BQ | — | — | 0% | — |
| BS | — | — | 0% | — |
| BU | — | — | 0% | — |
| BW | — | — | 0% | — |
| BY | — | — | 0% | — |
| Julian Alvarez | — | — | 0% | — |
| Dominik Szoboszlai | — | — | 0% | — |
| Achraf Hakimi | — | — | 0% | — |
| Q | — | — | 0% | — |
| Erling Haaland | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0.8pt |
| AM | — | — | 0% | — |
| BD | — | — | 0% | — |
| AW | — | — | 0% | — |
| Michael Olise | 2% | 1% | 4% | 3.5pt |
| AD | — | — | 0% | — |
| AI | — | — | 0% | — |
| Federico Valverde | — | — | 0% | — |
| BE | — | — | 0% | — |
| V | — | — | 0% | — |
| Lamine Yamal | 22% | 14% | 6% | 16.0pt |
| Harry Kane | 56% | 66% | 27% | 38.0pt |
| Marcus Rashford | 2% | 1% | — | 1.5pt |
| Luis Diaz | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1.8pt |
| Scott McTominay | 2% | 1% | — | 1.5pt |
| Raphinha | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1.8pt |
| Pedri | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1.5pt |
| Vinícius Júnior | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0.9pt |
| Kylian Mbappé | 9% | 9% | 28% | 20.0pt |
| Bukayo Saka | 2% | 1% | — | 1.5pt |
| Nuno Mendes | 1% | 1% | — | 0.5pt |
| Tijjani Reijnders | 2% | 1% | — | 1.5pt |
| Jude Bellingham | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2.7pt |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 1% | 2% | 13% | 12.3pt |
| Desire Doue | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1.8pt |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1.8pt |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1.1pt |
| Lautaro Martinez | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1.8pt |
| Mohamed Salah | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1.8pt |
| Rayan Cherki | 2% | 1% | — | 1.5pt |
| Rodri | 4% | 5% | — | 0.5pt |
| Gianluigi Donnarumma | 2% | 1% | — | 1.5pt |
| Lionel Messi | 8% | 4% | 13% | 9.8pt |
| Phil Foden | 2% | 1% | — | 1.5pt |
| Bruno Fernandes | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1.8pt |
| Vitinha | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1.8pt |
| Bradley Barcola | 2% | 1% | — | 1.5pt |
| Declan Rice | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1.5pt |
| Cole Palmer | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1.8pt |
| S | — | — | 0% | — |
Prices shown as implied probability (%). Spread is the largest gap between platforms for that outcome — a wider spread means the platforms disagree more about the likely result. A spread of 1+ point is stamped.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.
If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football ( https://www.francefootball.fr/ ).
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many platforms track "Ballon d'Or Winner 2026"?
3 platforms currently quote this market: Gemini, Kalshi, Polymarket. Odds Reference aggregates live prices from each and shows them side by side.
What is the current frontrunner for "Ballon d'Or Winner 2026"?
"Harry Kane" is the current frontrunner at an implied probability of 56%, based on the latest prices across tracked platforms.
Do platforms disagree on the price for "Ballon d'Or Winner 2026"?
Yes — the largest current disagreement is on "Harry Kane", where prices differ by 38.0 percentage points across platforms.
When does "Ballon d'Or Winner 2026" resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on October 28, 2026.