Prediction Markets Legal Timeline: 2024-2026
Last updated: July 15, 2026
Every CFTC action, court ruling, state cease-and-desist order, and major platform launch that shaped where US prediction markets stand today, in order. Each entry links to a primary or trade-press source. For the current state-by-state legal status, see the legality tracker.
This is not legal advice. This timeline documents public reporting on litigation and regulatory actions; it does not predict outcomes. Several cases referenced below (Maryland's Fourth Circuit appeal, Tennessee and Ohio's Sixth Circuit appeals, the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court case, the Ninth Circuit's California tribal and Nevada/Washington appeals, and Minnesota's ban) were unresolved as of the last-updated date above. Check each entry's source for the latest status.
September 2024
DC district court sides with Kalshi on 2024 election contracts
Judge Jia Cobb ruled the CFTC erred in classifying Kalshi’s "Congressional Control Contracts" as gaming, vacating the agency’s ban ahead of the November 2024 election.
Source: DWT — CFTC election-trading ban vacatedOctober 2024
DC Circuit denies CFTC stay, Kalshi keeps listing election contracts
The DC Circuit denied the CFTC’s motion for a stay pending appeal, finding the agency hadn’t shown irreparable harm — letting Kalshi’s election contracts stay live through the 2024 election.
Source: Justia — KalshiEX v. CFTCJanuary 2025
Kalshi lists its first sports event contracts
After building its business on election and economic contracts, Kalshi begins listing sports-related event contracts — the product line that triggers nearly every state dispute that follows.
Source: A Short History of US Prediction Market Regulation — InGameMarch 2025
Nevada and New Jersey issue the first sports-contract cease-and-desist letters
Nevada’s Gaming Control Board and New Jersey’s Division of Gaming Enforcement send cease-and-desist letters to Kalshi (and, in NJ’s case, Robinhood) — the opening moves of the state-vs-platform fight.
Source: Sportico — Kalshi, Robinhood answer C&D ordersApril 2025
Federal court grants Kalshi a preliminary injunction against New Jersey
A federal district court sides with Kalshi against New Jersey’s cease-and-desist — the first ruling in the case that eventually reaches the Third Circuit a year later.
Source: Regulatory Oversight — Kalshi litigation roundupMay 2025
CFTC drops its appeal of the 2024 election-contracts ruling
The CFTC voluntarily dismisses its appeal, closing out the 2024 election-contracts fight and freeing the agency to focus on the sports-contracts dispute already forming with states.
Source: DWT — Practical Law summaryJuly 2025
PredictIt and the CFTC settle their long-running no-action letter dispute
A federal judge rules for PredictIt; shortly after, PredictIt and the CFTC settle, resolving years of litigation over the platform’s no-action relief.
Source: PredScope — PredictIt in 2026August 2025
Massachusetts AG sues Kalshi; Maryland court denies Kalshi’s injunction request
AG Andrea Joy Campbell sues Kalshi in Suffolk Superior Court over unlicensed sports wagering. Separately, a federal court in Maryland denies Kalshi injunctive relief, finding Congress didn’t clearly intend to preempt state gambling law.
Source: Regulatory Oversight — Massachusetts sues KalshiRobinhood partners with Kalshi on NFL and college football contracts
Robinhood begins offering Kalshi’s NFL and college football event contracts inside its own app’s "Predictions Hub," a day after Kalshi self-certified point-spread, total, and touchdown-scorer contracts.
Source: CoinDesk — Robinhood partners with KalshiOctober 2025
Kalshi sues New York after a cease-and-desist letter
Kalshi sues New York State — the case that culminates, nearly nine months later, in the SDNY ruling against Kalshi.
Source: Covers.com — legal trackerNovember 2025
Federal court initially rules for Nevada
A federal district court sides with Nevada in the early phase of its dispute with Kalshi — a decision later complicated by Ninth Circuit proceedings and a fresh 2026 restraining order.
Source: Regulatory Oversight — Kalshi litigation roundupDecember 2025
Connecticut issues cease-and-desist orders to three platforms
Connecticut’s Department of Consumer Protection issues cease-and-desist orders to Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com.
Source: CNBC — CFTC sues Arizona, Connecticut, IllinoisCFTC eases recordkeeping rules for four platforms
The CFTC issues no-action relief on certain recordkeeping requirements to Polymarket, PredictIt, Gemini, and LedgerX.
Source: CoinDesk — CFTC no-action reliefJanuary 2026
Kalshi sues Tennessee Sports Wagering Council
Kalshi sues the Tennessee Sports Wagering Council following a cease-and-desist order on its sports event contracts.
Source: RotoWire — legal timelineNevada sues Polymarket’s parent company
Nevada Gaming Control Board files a civil enforcement action against Blockratize Inc. (Polymarket’s parent) to halt unlicensed wagering.
Source: RotoWire — legal timelineMassachusetts wins preliminary injunction to bar Kalshi sports contracts
A federal judge grants Massachusetts a preliminary injunction permitting the state to bar Kalshi’s sports event contracts while the underlying case proceeds.
Source: RotoWire — legal timelineHawaii introduces HB 2198
Hawaii introduces a bill explicitly defining prediction market platforms as illegal gambling. Not enacted as of this writing.
Source: RotoWire — legal timelineCFTC Chair Selig signals a comprehensive prediction-market rulemaking
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig announces the agency will withdraw prior restrictions and draft dedicated prediction-market regulations.
Source: RotoWire — legal timelineFebruary 2026
Polymarket sues Massachusetts AG Campbell
Polymarket files its own suit challenging Massachusetts’s authority to ban its sports event contracts.
Source: RotoWire — legal timelineTennessee federal court grants Kalshi a preliminary injunction
A federal judge rules Kalshi’s sports event contracts are likely CFTC-regulated swaps, blocking Tennessee’s enforcement while the case proceeds.
Source: Gaming Intelligence — Tennessee AG appealKalshi sues Utah Gov. Cox
Kalshi files a preemptive federal suit against Utah’s governor and state officials over anticipated enforcement.
Source: Fox 13 Now — Kalshi sues UtahMarch 2026
Polymarket sues Michigan AG Nessel
Michigan becomes roughly the tenth state drawn into prediction-market litigation within a single month.
Source: RotoWire — legal timelineOhio federal court denies Kalshi’s injunction, splits from Tennessee
A US District Court in Ohio rules sports event contracts do not qualify as "swaps" — the opposite conclusion from Tennessee’s federal court three weeks earlier, setting up the conflicting-precedent story that runs through 2026.
Source: DeFi Rate — Kalshi sues Ohio over $5M fineKalshi sues Iowa AG Bird
Kalshi files a preemptive suit against Iowa’s attorney general after a meeting in which she signaled the state considers its contracts unlawful.
Source: Iowa Capital DispatchArizona AG files 20 criminal counts against Kalshi
AG Kris Mayes files a 20-count criminal case against Kalshi covering college basketball and Super Bowl prop contracts plus election-wagering counts — the most aggressive state action against a platform to date.
Source: RotoWire — legal timelineNevada court issues a TRO covering sports, election, and entertainment contracts
A Nevada court issues a temporary restraining order against Kalshi that goes beyond sports contracts, also covering election and entertainment contracts.
Source: RotoWire — legal timelineWashington AG sues Kalshi
AG Nick Brown files suit against Kalshi for allegedly offering illegal gambling in Washington.
Source: Washington State StandardApril 2026
CFTC sues Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois
The CFTC opens its own offensive, suing three states directly to block their enforcement actions against CFTC-registered platforms — the start of what becomes a nine-state campaign.
Source: CNBC — CFTC sues Arizona, Connecticut, IllinoisThird Circuit rules for Kalshi on federal preemption (KalshiEX v. Flaherty)
In a 2-1 decision, the Third Circuit affirms Kalshi’s preliminary injunction against New Jersey, holding the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling law for sports event contracts on federally registered exchanges — the first federal appellate ruling on the question. Note: this is a preliminary-injunction ruling (likelihood of success), not a final merits decision, and similar cases remain pending in the Fourth, Sixth, and Ninth Circuits.
Source: Skadden — Third Circuit affirms Kalshi’s injunctionOhio moves to fine Kalshi $5 million
The Ohio Casino Control Commission announces intent to fine Kalshi $5 million for allegedly operating unlicensed sports gaming since roughly January 2025.
Source: DeFi Rate — Kalshi sues Ohio over $5M fineNinth Circuit hears consolidated preemption arguments
The Ninth Circuit hears consolidated oral arguments in three related cases — Nevada, Arizona (KalshiEX v. Assad), and Robinhood v. Dreitzer — that will shape multiple pending state disputes.
Source: Bloomberg Law — Kalshi returns to Ninth CircuitWisconsin sues five platforms at once
Wisconsin’s DOJ sues Kalshi, Coinbase, Robinhood, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, alleging illegal sports betting across all five.
Source: CoinDesk — Wisconsin sues five platformsSixth Circuit denies Kalshi’s emergency injunction in the Ohio case
A Sixth Circuit panel rejects Kalshi’s request for an emergency injunction that would have shielded it from Ohio enforcement pending appeal.
Source: DeFi Rate — Kalshi sues Ohio over $5M fineCFTC sues Wisconsin
Days after Wisconsin sued five platforms, the CFTC sues the state directly, adding it to the growing preemption-litigation campaign.
Source: CFTC — press releaseMay 2026
Arizona federal court issues a permanent injunction blocking the state’s criminal case
Judge Michael Liburdi converts a temporary block into a permanent injunction against Arizona’s criminal case, the first district-level merits ruling concluding federal law preempts state gambling statutes for CFTC-regulated markets.
Source: Arizona Mirror — permanent injunctionFourth Circuit hears Maryland oral arguments, appears skeptical of Kalshi
A three-judge Fourth Circuit panel questions whether Kalshi’s contracts are meaningfully different from state-regulated sports wagering. No ruling yet.
Source: Law.com — Fourth Circuit questions KalshiFour New Mexico tribes sue Kalshi
The Mescalero Apache Tribe, Pojoaque, Sandia, and Isleta Pueblos file a federal suit against Kalshi over sports betting on tribal lands.
Source: Albuquerque JournalMinnesota becomes the first state to ban prediction markets outright
Gov. Tim Walz signs SF 4760, making operating, hosting, or promoting a prediction market a felony in Minnesota. The ban is not sports-specific — it covers prediction markets generally — and is scheduled to take effect Aug. 1, 2026.
Source: MinnLawyer — CFTC sues to block banCFTC and DOJ sue Minnesota within 24 hours of the ban being signed
The Trump administration’s CFTC, joined by the DOJ Civil Division, sues Minnesota seeking a preliminary injunction against the new ban — the agency’s sixth state lawsuit in seven weeks.
Source: CFTC — press releaseRhode Island AG sues Kalshi
Rhode Island’s attorney general sues Kalshi over sports event contracts; the CFTC later counter-sues the state as part of its preemption campaign.
Source: RotoWire — legal timelineJune 2026
New Mexico AG sues Kalshi in state court
AG Raúl Torrez sues Kalshi in state district court, alleging its sports-betting app functions as an unlicensed sportsbook and allows under-21 users to trade.
Source: Albuquerque Journal — feds seek to thwart NM suitCFTC formally proposes a dedicated prediction-market regulatory framework
The CFTC proposes its first dedicated rulemaking for prediction markets, establishing a contract-by-contract review process.
Source: RotoWire — legal timelineKentucky AG files three lawsuits against prediction-market platforms
AG Russell Coleman sues Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, Robinhood, and VGW across three separate suits alleging illegal gambling.
Source: Casino.org — Kentucky AG lawsuitsCFTC sues Kentucky, its ninth state lawsuit
The CFTC sues Kentucky, bringing to nine the number of states it has sued directly: Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, New York, New Mexico, Minnesota, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, and Kentucky.
Source: Eastern Herald — CFTC sues KentuckyMichigan becomes the second state with a live court-ordered block
AG Dana Nessel secures a temporary restraining order in Ingham County Circuit Court halting KalshiEx’s Michigan operations, with a $120,000/day noncompliance fine.
Source: Michigan AG press releaseKalshi sues Ohio’s regulator over the $5M fine itself
Kalshi files a complaint in Franklin County Court of Common Pleas seeking to block Ohio’s administrative fine proceeding, arguing it cannot be assessed a punitive penalty without a jury trial.
Source: SBC Americas — Kalshi sues Ohio regulatorJuly 2026
Federal judge hears arguments on Minnesota’s ban ahead of its Aug. 1 effective date
Judge Katherine Menendez hears arguments on whether Minnesota’s ban can be preempted only for contracts that pass the CEA "swap" test. No ruling yet — the ban remains on track to take effect Aug. 1, 2026 absent an injunction.
Source: SCCG Management — swaps definition may decide banNorth Carolina legislatively sides with federal preemption
Gov. Josh Stein signs SB 257, recognizing the CFTC’s exclusive authority over CFTC-licensed prediction markets and imposing a 6% fee tax (not a licensing regime) starting Jan. 1, 2027 — a notably different approach from the roughly dozen states suing to restrict the same platforms.
Source: PYMNTS — North Carolina makes prediction markets legalSDNY rules against Kalshi in New York — a direct split from the Third Circuit
Judge Analisa Torres denies Kalshi’s preliminary injunction, ruling New York gambling law as applied to sports event contracts is not preempted by the Commodity Exchange Act. Kalshi appeals to the Second Circuit the same day. This is the clearest evidence yet that the preemption question is unresolved nationally and headed toward a circuit split the Supreme Court may need to resolve.
Source: NY1 — federal judge denies KalshiNinth Circuit hears California tribal sovereignty appeal
A Ninth Circuit panel presses Kalshi on why its sports event contracts shouldn’t count as Class III gaming under IGRA on tribal lands. Massachusetts, California, 25 other states, and DC file support for the tribes’ position. No ruling yet; the underlying case and Kalshi’s separate Nevada case both remain stayed pending this decision.
Source: Bettors Insider — Ninth Circuit tribal appealMichigan TRO hearing
A hearing is held on whether to extend, modify, or let expire the temporary restraining order blocking Kalshi’s Michigan sports contracts. The outcome had not been confirmed in public reporting as of this writing.
Source: Axios Detroit — Michigan court rulingWisconsin injunction briefing completes
Reply briefs are filed on Wisconsin’s motion for a preliminary injunction against Kalshi, Coinbase, and Robinhood; a ruling is pending.
Source: Law360 — Robinhood fights WisconsinFrequently Asked Questions
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