Break-Even Calculator

Last updated: 2026-07-14

Find the exact probability needed to break even at any contract price, including platform-specific trading fees. Compare breakeven thresholds across Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, FanDuel, and DraftKings.

Cheapest break-even win rate
50.1%
At 50¢, Polymarket US needs to win only 50.1% of the time to break even — the cheapest platform you picked.
¢
Kalshi
52.0%
break-even win rate
Polymarket US
50.1%
cheapest
DraftKings Predictions
52.0%
break-even win rate

How Does the Break-Even Probability Calculator Work?

The break-even probability equals your effective cost divided by your effective payout. For a standard $1.00 binary contract, your effective cost is the contract price plus any trading fee charged by the platform. Since most platforms pay out exactly $1.00 on winning contracts with no settlement fee, the formula simplifies to: breakeven = (price + fee) / $1.00.

This calculator computes that breakeven for every price point from 1 to 99 cents across all five major prediction market platforms, then plots the results so you can see exactly where each platform becomes the cheapest option.

Why Does the Cheapest Platform Change at Different Prices?

Platform fee structures use fundamentally different formulas. Kalshi charges fees proportional to price variance (highest at 50 cents, lowest near 1 or 99 cents). Polymarket charges a flat 0.1% of trade value. DraftKings and Crypto.com charge fixed per-contract fees regardless of price. These different curves intersect at specific prices, creating crossover points where the optimal platform switches.

How Should Traders Use Break-Even Analysis?

Every trade should start with a break-even check. If you believe an event has a 65% chance of happening and the contract trades at 60 cents, the raw edge looks like 5 percentage points. But after fees, the break-even might be 62%, cutting your real edge to 3 points. On a different platform, the break-even might be 60.5%, preserving more of your edge. Use the live dashboard to find the current best price, then this tool to confirm which platform gives you the lowest break-even threshold.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does break-even probability mean in prediction markets?
Break-even probability is the minimum win rate needed for a trade to produce zero profit after accounting for all fees. If a contract costs 50 cents and the platform charges a 2-cent fee, your effective cost is 52 cents, so you need a 52% win rate to break even.
How do platform fees affect the break-even point?
Each platform calculates trading fees differently. Kalshi uses a formula based on price variance, Polymarket charges a flat percentage, and others use per-contract flat fees. These differences mean the same 50-cent contract has different break-even thresholds on each platform.
What is a crossover point in the breakeven chart?
A crossover point is a contract price where the cheapest platform changes. For example, Platform A might have lower breakeven probability below 40 cents, while Platform B becomes cheaper above 40 cents. The chart highlights these transitions.
Why does the break-even probability differ from the contract price?
The contract price equals the implied probability only in a zero-fee market. Real platforms charge trading fees that raise your effective cost, meaning you need a higher actual probability than the price implies to make money.
Which platform has the lowest break-even threshold?
It depends on the contract price. Platforms with percentage-based fees (like Polymarket at 0.1%) are cheapest on low-priced contracts. Platforms with formula-based fees (like Kalshi) may be cheaper near 50 cents where their fee curve peaks.
How should I use break-even probability in my trading?
Compare your estimated probability of an event to the break-even probability. If you believe there is a 60% chance but the break-even is 53%, you have positive expected value. The wider the gap between your estimate and the break-even, the better the trade.
Does this calculator include settlement fees?
Yes. The calculator factors in both trading fees and settlement fees where applicable. Most major US platforms currently charge zero settlement fees, but this tool will reflect any changes as platforms update their fee structures.
Can I compare more than two platforms at once?
Yes. Select as many platforms as you want using the platform toggle buttons. The results table and crossover chart update to show all selected platforms simultaneously, making it easy to identify which platform offers the lowest breakeven at your target price.

Related Tools

EV Calculator Fee Calculator Fee-Adjusted Returns

Related Articles

What Is Expected Value? → What Is Implied Probability? →