Lottery EV Calculator

Last updated: 2026-07-14

Calculate the expected value of Powerball and Mega Millions tickets. See EV per dollar, breakeven jackpot, and why lottery tickets are almost always -EV.

What a ticket is really worth (expected value)
-$1.20
You lose about $1.20 of every $2 ticket, on average.
$
$500M advertised jackpot
37%
What you'd make per ticket, on average
-$1.20
Return per dollar spent
-59.8%
Jackpot needed to break even
$834M
Where this lands
WorstBreak evenBest
Looking for a better long-run return?
Prediction markets pay back more per dollar than lottery tickets, on average. Track odds across platforms on our dashboard.

How Is Lottery Expected Value Calculated?

Expected value sums each prize tier's value multiplied by its probability, then subtracts the ticket cost. For the jackpot tier, we apply tax deductions and divide by the estimated number of co-winners. The result tells you how much each $2 ticket is actually worth on average. A negative EV means you lose money long-term.

Are Prediction Markets a Better Bet?

Prediction markets typically offer much better expected value than lottery tickets. While lottery EV ranges from -$1.50 to -$1.90 per $2 ticket, prediction market traders can find +EV opportunities by identifying mispriced contracts. Track real-time odds across platforms on the Odds Reference dashboard.

The Breakeven Jackpot Myth

Many articles cite a "breakeven jackpot" around $585M. This ignores two critical factors: taxes reduce the after-tax value by 37-50%, and co-winner probability increases with jackpot size. After accounting for both, no historical jackpot has ever been truly +EV.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the expected value of a lottery ticket?
Expected value (EV) is the average return per ticket over infinite plays. For a $2 Powerball ticket with a $100M jackpot, the EV is approximately -$1.75, meaning you lose $1.75 on average per ticket. EV only approaches break-even at jackpots exceeding $500M, and co-winner splitting keeps it negative even at record jackpots.
At what jackpot is a lottery ticket worth buying?
From a pure expected value standpoint, a Powerball ticket approaches break-even when the jackpot exceeds roughly $585M (before taxes). However, co-winner adjustment means the practical breakeven is higher. Even the record $2.04B jackpot had a negative expected value after taxes and co-winner splitting.
Why does expected value stay negative even at huge jackpots?
Three factors keep lottery EV negative: taxes reduce winnings by 37-50%, the cash option is only ~60% of the advertised amount, and massive jackpots attract more players, increasing the probability of splitting the prize. The co-winner effect is the biggest drag at high jackpots.
How does co-winner splitting affect expected value?
As jackpots grow, ticket sales surge. At a $1B jackpot, an estimated 430M tickets are sold, making it likely that 2-3 tickets match the jackpot numbers. Splitting a $1B jackpot three ways gives each winner ~$333M before taxes, dramatically reducing the per-ticket expected value.

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