Economics
Fed Decision in October? Odds Compared
2 platforms $14.8M total volume Resolves October 29, 2026 Quoted under 1 hour ago
Cross-Platform Price Comparison
1.6pt spread ≥ 1pt
| Outcome | Gemini | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50+ bps increase | — | 1% | — |
| 50+ bps decrease | — | 0% | — |
| 25 bps decrease | 2% | 0% | 1.6pt |
| No change | 33% | 34% | 0.5pt |
| 25 bps increase | 2% | 65% | 62.5pt |
Prices shown as implied probability (%). Spread is the largest gap between platforms for that outcome — a wider spread means the platforms disagree more about the likely result. A spread of 1+ point is stamped.
Resolution criteria
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm .
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm .
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many platforms track "Fed Decision in October"?
2 platforms currently quote this market: Gemini, Polymarket. Odds Reference aggregates live prices from each and shows them side by side.
What is the current frontrunner for "Fed Decision in October"?
"25 bps increase" is the current frontrunner at an implied probability of 65%, based on the latest prices across tracked platforms.
Do platforms disagree on the price for "Fed Decision in October"?
Yes — the largest current disagreement is on "25 bps increase", where prices differ by 62.5 percentage points across platforms.
When does "Fed Decision in October" resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on October 29, 2026.