Economics
How low will the S&P get this year? Odds Compared
2 platforms
$62.1K total volume
Resolves December 31, 2026
Frontrunner — 7 day trend
6,400 or below
99%
Cross-Platform Price Comparison
| Outcome | Gemini | Kalshi | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6,600 or below | 0% | — | — |
| 6,500 or below | 0% | — | — |
| 6,000 or below | 0% | 17% | 17.0pt |
| 5,900 or below | 10% | 13% | 2.5pt |
| 6,200 or below | 18% | 26% | 7.6pt |
| 6,400 or below | 99% | — | — |
| 6,300 or below | 22% | 28% | 6.4pt |
| 6,100 or below | 17% | 22% | 4.6pt |
Prices shown as implied probability (%). Spread is the largest gap between platforms for that outcome — a wider spread means the platforms disagree more about the likely result.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many platforms track "How low will the S&P get this year?"?
2 platforms currently quote this market: Gemini, Kalshi. Odds Reference aggregates live prices from each and shows them side by side.
What is the current frontrunner for "How low will the S&P get this year?"?
"6,400 or below" is the current frontrunner at an implied probability of 99%, based on the latest prices across tracked platforms.
Do platforms disagree on the price for "How low will the S&P get this year?"?
Yes — the largest current disagreement is on "6,000 or below", where prices differ by 17.0 percentage points across platforms.
When does "How low will the S&P get this year?" resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.