Economics
How low will the S&P get this year? Odds Compared
2 platforms $62.2K total volume Resolves December 31, 2026 Quoted 13d ago
Cross-Platform Price Comparison
1.6pt spread ≥ 1pt
| Outcome | Gemini | Kalshi | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6,000 or below | 8% | 8% | 0.8pt |
| 6,200 or below | 12% | 10% | 2.0pt |
| 6,400 or below | 99% | — | — |
| 6,300 or below | 18% | 11% | 7.0pt |
| 6,100 or below | 10% | 9% | 0.8pt |
| 6,500 or below | 99% | — | — |
| 6,600 or below | 99% | — | — |
| 5,900 or below | 7% | 6% | 0.3pt |
Prices shown as implied probability (%). Spread is the largest gap between platforms for that outcome — a wider spread means the platforms disagree more about the likely result. A spread of 1+ point is stamped.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many platforms track "How low will the S&P get this year"?
2 platforms currently quote this market: Gemini, Kalshi. Odds Reference aggregates live prices from each and shows them side by side.
What is the current frontrunner for "How low will the S&P get this year"?
"6,400 or below" is the current frontrunner at an implied probability of 99%, based on the latest prices across tracked platforms.
Do platforms disagree on the price for "How low will the S&P get this year"?
Yes — the largest current disagreement is on "6,300 or below", where prices differ by 7.0 percentage points across platforms.
When does "How low will the S&P get this year" resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.