Economics
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Odds Compared
2 platforms $5.1M total volume Resolves January 1, 2027 Quoted under 1 hour ago
Cross-Platform Price Comparison
1.6pt spread ≥ 1pt
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 3% | 1.9pt |
| No | 95% | 97% | 1.9pt |
Prices shown as implied probability (%). Spread is the largest gap between platforms for that outcome — a wider spread means the platforms disagree more about the likely result. A spread of 1+ point is stamped.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto
If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many platforms track "Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026"?
2 platforms currently quote this market: Kalshi, Polymarket. Odds Reference aggregates live prices from each and shows them side by side.
What is the current frontrunner for "Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026"?
"No" is the current frontrunner at an implied probability of 97%, based on the latest prices across tracked platforms.
Do platforms disagree on the price for "Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026"?
Yes — the largest current disagreement is on "No", where prices differ by 1.9 percentage points across platforms.
When does "Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026" resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.