Economics

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Odds Compared

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.

2 platforms
$4.7M total volume
Resolves January 1, 2027
Frontrunner — 7 day trend
No
95%

Cross-Platform Price Comparison

Outcome Kalshi Polymarket Spread
No 96% 95% 0.3pt
Yes 5% 5% 0.4pt

Prices shown as implied probability (%). Spread is the largest gap between platforms for that outcome — a wider spread means the platforms disagree more about the likely result.

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View on Kalshi View on Polymarket

Frequently Asked Questions

How many platforms track "Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?"?
2 platforms currently quote this market: Kalshi, Polymarket. Odds Reference aggregates live prices from each and shows them side by side.
What is the current frontrunner for "Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?"?
"No" is the current frontrunner at an implied probability of 95%, based on the latest prices across tracked platforms.
Do platforms disagree on the price for "Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?"?
Yes — the largest current disagreement is on "Yes", where prices differ by 0.4 percentage points across platforms.
When does "Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?" resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.

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