Politics
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 Odds Compared
3 platforms $66.3M total volume Resolves November 7, 2028 Quoted under 1 hour ago
Frontrunner — 7 day trend
J.D. Vance
45%
Cross-Platform Price Comparison
1.6pt spread ≥ 1pt
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| Person U | — | — | 0% | — |
| Person AH | — | — | 0% | — |
| Person BY | — | — | 0% | — |
| Person K | — | — | 1% | — |
| Kim Kardashian | — | — | 1% | — |
| Tom Brady | — | 0% | 1% | 0.8pt |
| Tulsi Gabbard | — | 0% | 1% | 0.7pt |
| Jeff Bezos | — | 1% | — | — |
| Greg Abbott | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1.4pt |
| Person CQ | — | — | 0% | — |
| Rand Paul | — | 0% | 1% | 0.4pt |
| Will Thomas Massie be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 2% | 1% | — | 0.9pt |
| Person R | — | — | 0% | — |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | — | 0% | 49% | 48.5pt |
| Will Nicki Minaj be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Byron Donalds | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1.6pt |
| Marco Rubio | 21% | 20% | 27% | 8.0pt |
| Kristi Noem | — | 0% | 1% | 0.5pt |
| Elon Musk | — | 0% | 1% | 0.8pt |
| Pete Hegseth | — | 1% | 1% | 0.0pt |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | — | 1% | 1% | 0.1pt |
| Josh Hawley | — | 1% | 1% | 0.1pt |
| Candace Owens | — | 1% | 0% | 0.5pt |
| Matt Gaetz | — | 0% | 1% | 0.5pt |
| Ivanka Trump | — | 1% | 1% | 0.3pt |
| Will Ivanka Trump be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Person CJ | — | — | 0% | — |
| Will Brian Kemp be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 2% | 1% | — | 1.3pt |
| Will Elise Stefanik be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Person CF | — | — | 0% | — |
| Person AT | — | — | 0% | — |
| Tom Cotton | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Lara Trump be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 1% | — | — |
| Ron DeSantis | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2.5pt |
| John Thune | — | 0% | 1% | 0.4pt |
| Nikki Haley | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1.5pt |
| Brian Kemp | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1.3pt |
| Spencer Pratt | — | 1% | — | — |
| Tucker Carlson | — | 3% | 3% | 0.6pt |
| Mike Pence | — | 0% | 1% | 0.2pt |
| Steve Bannon | — | 0% | 1% | 0.3pt |
| Thomas Massie | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1.1pt |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | — | 1% | 1% | 0.5pt |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1.3pt |
| Chris Christie | — | 1% | — | — |
| Elise Stefanik | — | 0% | 1% | 0.5pt |
| Ted Cruz | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0.9pt |
| Donald Trump | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1.7pt |
| Glenn Youngkin | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1.1pt |
| Katie Britt | — | 0% | 0% | 0.0pt |
| Erika Kirk | — | 0% | 1% | 0.7pt |
| Will Mike Pence be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Katie Britt be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 1% | — | — |
| Will Steve Bannon be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 21% | 21% | — | 0.5pt |
| Will Ted Cruz be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 2% | 2% | — | 0.1pt |
| Will Greg Abbott be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 2% | 1% | — | 1.4pt |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 4% | 0% | 1% | 3.8pt |
| Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 44% | 46% | — | 1.5pt |
| Will Matt Gaetz be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Joe Kent | — | — | 1% | — |
| Other | — | — | 0% | — |
| J.D. Vance | 45% | 45% | 42% | 3.5pt |
| Will Donald J. Trump be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 3% | 0% | — | 2.8pt |
| Will Donald J. Trump Jr. be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 4% | 0% | — | 3.8pt |
| Will Pete Hegseth be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Tucker Carlson be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 3% | — | — |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Erika Kirk be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 1% | — | — |
| Will Byron Donalds be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 2% | 0% | — | 1.7pt |
| Will Ron DeSantis be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 5% | 4% | — | 0.6pt |
| Will Nikki Haley be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 2% | 1% | — | 1.5pt |
| Will John Thune be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 1% | — | — |
| Will Josh Hawley be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 1% | — | — |
| Will Elon Musk be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Glenn Youngkin be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 2% | 1% | — | 0.9pt |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Kristi Noem be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Tom Cotton be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 2% | 1% | — | 1.3pt |
| Will Jeff Bezos be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 1% | — | — |
Prices shown as implied probability (%). Spread is the largest gap between platforms for that outcome — a wider spread means the platforms disagree more about the likely result. A spread of 1+ point is stamped.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many platforms track "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028"?
3 platforms currently quote this market: Gemini, Kalshi, Polymarket. Odds Reference aggregates live prices from each and shows them side by side.
What is the current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028"?
"J.D. Vance" is the current frontrunner at an implied probability of 45%, based on the latest prices across tracked platforms.
Do platforms disagree on the price for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028"?
Yes — the largest current disagreement is on "Robert F. Kennedy Jr.", where prices differ by 48.5 percentage points across platforms.
When does "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on November 7, 2028.