Politics
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 Odds Compared
3 platforms $72.6M total volume Resolves November 7, 2028 Quoted 3h ago
Cross-Platform Price Comparison
1.6pt spread ≥ 1pt
| Outcome | Gemini | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Other | — | — | 0% | — |
| Person AA | — | — | 0% | — |
| Person CQ | — | — | 0% | — |
| Person BV | — | — | 0% | — |
| Person BD | — | — | 0% | — |
| Person AS | — | — | 0% | — |
| Person AO | — | — | 0% | — |
| Person CK | — | — | 0% | — |
| Kim Kardashian | — | — | 0% | — |
| Tulsi Gabbard | — | 0% | 0% | 0.2pt |
| Rand Paul | — | 1% | 1% | 0.0pt |
| Ivanka Trump | — | 1% | 1% | 0.2pt |
| Person R | — | — | 0% | — |
| Person L | — | — | 0% | — |
| Person Q | — | — | 0% | — |
| Pete Hegseth | — | 0% | 0% | 0.2pt |
| Person M | — | — | 0% | — |
| Steve Bannon | — | 0% | 0% | 0.1pt |
| Person N | — | — | 0% | — |
| Byron Donalds | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1.3pt |
| Person S | — | — | 0% | — |
| Marco Rubio | 21% | 21% | 18% | 2.6pt |
| Erika Kirk | — | 0% | 0% | 0.0pt |
| Elon Musk | — | 0% | 0% | 0.1pt |
| Person O | — | — | 0% | — |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | — | 0% | 0% | 0.0pt |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | — | 0% | 0% | 0.0pt |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | — | 1% | 0% | 0.2pt |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1.5pt |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 4% | 1% | 2% | 2.9pt |
| Brian Kemp | 2% | 2% | 4% | 1.8pt |
| Josh Hawley | — | 1% | 1% | 0.2pt |
| Donald Trump | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1.3pt |
| Mike Pence | — | 0% | 0% | 0.1pt |
| Person K | — | — | 0% | — |
| J.D. Vance | 45% | 34% | 31% | 14.3pt |
| Tucker Carlson | — | 3% | 4% | 0.3pt |
| John Thune | — | 0% | 0% | 0.1pt |
| Ron DeSantis | 5% | 17% | 17% | 11.5pt |
| Person T | — | — | 0% | — |
| Thomas Massie | 2% | 3% | 4% | 1.5pt |
| Glenn Youngkin | 2% | 3% | 2% | 0.8pt |
| Person P | — | — | 0% | — |
| Elise Stefanik | — | 0% | 0% | 0.0pt |
| Tom Brady | — | 1% | 0% | 0.6pt |
| Ted Cruz | 1% | 3% | 3% | 1.9pt |
| Greg Abbott | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.8pt |
| Matt Gaetz | — | 0% | 0% | 0.1pt |
| Person U | — | — | 3% | — |
| Person CF | — | — | 0% | — |
| Will Pete Hegseth be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Byron Donalds be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 2% | 1% | — | 1.3pt |
| Person CL | — | — | 0% | — |
| Will Nicki Minaj be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Person AC | — | — | 0% | — |
| Will Elise Stefanik be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Person AH | — | — | 0% | — |
| Person AP | — | — | 0% | — |
| Person BG | — | — | 0% | — |
| Person AD | — | — | 0% | — |
| Person BK | — | — | 0% | — |
| Person CH | — | — | 0% | — |
| Person AZ | — | — | 0% | — |
| Joe Kent | — | — | 0% | — |
| Katie Britt | — | 0% | 0% | 0.2pt |
| Will Kristi Noem be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Tucker Carlson be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 3% | — | — |
| Person AX | — | — | 0% | — |
| Will Lara Trump be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Donald J. Trump be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 3% | 0% | — | 2.8pt |
| Will Donald J. Trump Jr. be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 4% | 0% | — | 3.9pt |
| Nikki Haley | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1.1pt |
| Ben Shapiro | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Erika Kirk be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Chris Sununu | — | 0% | — | — |
| Doug Burgum | — | 0% | — | — |
| Wesley Hunt | — | 0% | — | — |
| Chris Christie | — | 1% | — | — |
| Jeff Bezos | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Jeff Bezos be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Steve Bannon be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Nikki Haley be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 2% | 1% | — | 0.8pt |
| Spencer Pratt | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Tom Cotton be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 1% | — | — |
| Tom Cotton | — | 1% | — | — |
| Will Elon Musk be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Glenn Youngkin be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 2% | 3% | — | 0.8pt |
| Will Greg Abbott be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 2% | 0% | — | 1.8pt |
| Candace Owens | — | 0% | 0% | 0.0pt |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 21% | 21% | — | 0.5pt |
| Will Ron DeSantis be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 5% | 17% | — | 11.5pt |
| Will Ted Cruz be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 2% | 3% | — | 0.6pt |
| Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 2% | 1% | — | 0.9pt |
| Kristi Noem | — | 0% | 0% | 0.1pt |
| Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 44% | 34% | — | 10.5pt |
| Will Mike Pence be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 1% | — | — |
| Will Katie Britt be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Ivanka Trump be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 1% | — | — |
| Will Josh Hawley be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 1% | — | — |
| Will Matt Gaetz be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Person CJ | — | — | 0% | — |
| Will Thomas Massie be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 2% | 3% | — | 0.8pt |
| Tim Scott | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Brian Kemp be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 2% | 2% | — | 0.1pt |
| Will John Thune be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
Prices shown as implied probability (%). Spread is the largest gap between platforms for that outcome — a wider spread means the platforms disagree more about the likely result. A spread of 1+ point is stamped.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many platforms track "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028"?
3 platforms currently quote this market: Gemini, Kalshi, Polymarket. Odds Reference aggregates live prices from each and shows them side by side.
What is the current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028"?
"Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?" is the current frontrunner at an implied probability of 34%, based on the latest prices across tracked platforms.
Do platforms disagree on the price for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028"?
Yes — the largest current disagreement is on "J.D. Vance", where prices differ by 14.3 percentage points across platforms.
When does "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on November 7, 2028.