Politics
Which party will win the next UK general election? Odds Compared
2 platforms $259.3K total volume Resolves August 31, 2029 Quoted under 1 hour ago
Cross-Platform Price Comparison
1.6pt spread ≥ 1pt
| Outcome | Gemini | Kalshi | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Green win the next U.K. election? | — | 2% | — |
| Will Restore Britain win the next U.K. election? | 4% | 4% | 0.2pt |
| Will Bruv win the next U.K. election? | — | 0% | — |
| Will Your Party win the next U.K. election? | 1% | 35% | 33.5pt |
| Will Liberal Democratic win the next U.K. election? | — | 1% | — |
| Will Labour win the next U.K. election? | 36% | 41% | 5.0pt |
| Will Reform win the next U.K. election? | — | 32% | — |
| Will Conservative win the next U.K. election? | — | 24% | — |
Prices shown as implied probability (%). Spread is the largest gap between platforms for that outcome — a wider spread means the platforms disagree more about the likely result. A spread of 1+ point is stamped.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many platforms track "Which party will win the next UK general election"?
2 platforms currently quote this market: Gemini, Kalshi. Odds Reference aggregates live prices from each and shows them side by side.
What is the current frontrunner for "Which party will win the next UK general election"?
"Will Labour win the next U.K. election?" is the current frontrunner at an implied probability of 41%, based on the latest prices across tracked platforms.
Do platforms disagree on the price for "Which party will win the next UK general election"?
Yes — the largest current disagreement is on "Will Your Party win the next U.K. election?", where prices differ by 33.5 percentage points across platforms.
When does "Which party will win the next UK general election" resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on August 31, 2029.