Politics

2028 Democratic presidential nominee Odds Compared

2 platforms
$175.9M total volume
Resolves November 7, 2028
Frontrunner — 7 day trend
Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?
17%

Cross-Platform Price Comparison

Outcome Kalshi Polymarket Spread
MrBeast 1%
Oprah Winfrey 1%
Kim Kardashian 1%
George Clooney 1%
Other 0%
Person P 0%
Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 5% 5% 0.2pt
Will Rahm Emanuel be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 5% 2% 2.5pt
Will Michelle Obama be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 1% 1% 0.1pt
Will Lebron James be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 0% 0% 0.4pt
Will Elizabeth Warren be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party? 0%
Will Mitch Landrieu be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party? 1%
Will Jamie Dimon be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 0%
Will Amy Klobuchar be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party? 0%
Will Elissa Slotkin be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 1%
Will Abdul El-Sayed be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party? 2%
Will Barack Obama be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 0% 1% 0.3pt
Will Jasmine Crockett be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party? 0% 1% 0.6pt
Will Dwayne Johnson be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party? 0% 1% 1.1pt
Will Beto O'Rourke be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party? 0% 0% 0.4pt
Will Andrew Yang be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party? 0% 1% 0.3pt
Will Jared Polis be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 0% 1% 0.5pt
Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 5% 5% 0.7pt
Will Jon Stewart be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 1% 2% 1.1pt
Will J.B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 3% 1% 1.7pt
Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 17% 20% 3.7pt
Will James Talarico be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 2% 1% 0.5pt
Will Liz Cheney be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 0% 1% 0.6pt
Will Zohran Mamdani be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 0% 1% 0.3pt
Will Hunter Biden be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 1% 1% 0.0pt
Will Bernie Sanders be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 1% 1% 0.0pt
Will Graham Platner be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party? 0% 0% 0.4pt
Will Raphael Warnock be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 1% 1% 0.2pt
Will Andy Beshear be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 4% 2% 1.4pt
Will Roy Cooper be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 0% 1% 0.6pt
Will Gretchen Whitmer be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 1% 1% 0.2pt
Will Mark Kelly be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 6% 1% 5.2pt
Will Wes Moore be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 2% 1% 1.1pt
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 14% 15% 0.1pt
Will Gina Raimondo be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 0% 1% 0.5pt
Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 9% 7% 2.5pt
Will Phil Murphy be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 0% 1% 0.5pt
Will Chris Murphy be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 1% 1% 0.1pt
Will Ro Khanna be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 2% 2% 0.3pt
Will Ruben Gallego be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 1% 1% 0.0pt
Will Mark Cuban be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 1% 1% 0.0pt
Will Hilary Clinton be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 0% 1% 0.7pt
Will Tim Walz be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 0% 0% 0.3pt
Will John Fetterman be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 0% 1% 0.4pt
Will Stephen A. Smith be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 1% 1% 0.4pt
Shawn Fain 1%
Will Jon Ossoff be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 14% 12% 2.4pt
Will Cory Booker be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? 1% 1% 0.1pt

Prices shown as implied probability (%). Spread is the largest gap between platforms for that outcome — a wider spread means the platforms disagree more about the likely result.

Frequently Asked Questions

How many platforms track "2028 Democratic presidential nominee"?
2 platforms currently quote this market: Kalshi, Polymarket. Odds Reference aggregates live prices from each and shows them side by side.
What is the current frontrunner for "2028 Democratic presidential nominee"?
"Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?" is the current frontrunner at an implied probability of 17%, based on the latest prices across tracked platforms.
Do platforms disagree on the price for "2028 Democratic presidential nominee"?
Yes — the largest current disagreement is on "Will Mark Kelly be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?", where prices differ by 5.2 percentage points across platforms.
When does "2028 Democratic presidential nominee" resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on November 7, 2028.