Politics
2028 Republican presidential nominee Odds Compared
2 platforms $51.5M total volume Resolves November 7, 2028 Quoted 53d ago
Cross-Platform Price Comparison
1.6pt spread ≥ 1pt
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald J. Trump be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | — | — |
| Will John Thune be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 1% | — |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 1% | — |
| Will Elon Musk be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 0% | 1% | 0.7pt |
| Will Steve Bannon be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 0% | 1% | 0.2pt |
| Will Tom Cotton be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 0% | 1% | 0.4pt |
| Will Erika Kirk be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 1% | — |
| Will Katie Britt be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 0% | 0% | 0.2pt |
| Will Rand Paul be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 1% | 1% | 0.2pt |
| Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 27% | — |
| Will Greg Abbott be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 0% | 1% | 0.5pt |
| Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 1% | — |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 1% | — |
| Will Brian Kemp be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 1% | — |
| Will Donald J. Trump Jr. be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 2% | — |
| Will Kristi Noem be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 1% | — |
| Will Mike Pence be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 0% | 1% | 0.1pt |
| Will Tucker Carlson be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 3% | — |
| Will Ted Cruz be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 1% | — |
| Will Ron DeSantis be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 2% | — |
| Will Glenn Youngkin be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 1% | — |
| Will Matt Gaetz be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 1% | — |
| Will Josh Hawley be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 1% | — |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 1% | — |
| Will Nikki Haley be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 1% | — |
| Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 42% | — |
| Will Byron Donalds be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 1% | — |
| Will Elise Stefanik be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 1% | — |
| Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 1% | — |
| Will Thomas Massie be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 1% | — |
| Will Eric Trump be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 0% | 1% | 0.5pt |
| Joe Kent | — | 1% | — |
| Will Pete Hegseth be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — |
| Will Candace Owens be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 1% | 0% | 0.5pt |
| Person O | — | 0% | — |
| Other | — | 0% | — |
| Kim Kardashian | — | 1% | — |
| Will Nicki Minaj be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | — | — |
| Will Spencer Pratt be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 1% | — | — |
| Will Ivanka Trump be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 1% | — |
Prices shown as implied probability (%). Spread is the largest gap between platforms for that outcome — a wider spread means the platforms disagree more about the likely result. A spread of 1+ point is stamped.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many platforms track "2028 Republican presidential nominee"?
2 platforms currently quote this market: Kalshi, Polymarket. Odds Reference aggregates live prices from each and shows them side by side.
What is the current frontrunner for "2028 Republican presidential nominee"?
"Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?" is the current frontrunner at an implied probability of 49%, based on the latest prices across tracked platforms.
Do platforms disagree on the price for "2028 Republican presidential nominee"?
Yes — the largest current disagreement is on "Will Elon Musk be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?", where prices differ by 0.7 percentage points across platforms.
When does "2028 Republican presidential nominee" resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on November 7, 2028.