Politics
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 Odds Compared
3 platforms $227.0M total volume Resolves November 7, 2028 Quoted under 1 hour ago
Cross-Platform Price Comparison
1.6pt spread ≥ 1pt
| Outcome | Gemini | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Person BO | — | — | 0% | — |
| Person N | — | — | 1% | — |
| Will Graham Platner be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party? | — | 0% | 0% | 0.4pt |
| MrBeast | — | — | 1% | — |
| Kim Kardashian | — | — | 1% | — |
| Chelsea Clinton | — | — | 1% | — |
| Oprah Winfrey | — | — | 1% | — |
| George Clooney | — | — | 1% | — |
| Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | 15% | 14% | — | 1.5pt |
| Raphael Warnock | — | 1% | 1% | 0.2pt |
| Gina Raimondo | — | 0% | 1% | 0.6pt |
| Ro Khanna | — | 2% | 2% | 0.2pt |
| Bernie Sanders | — | 0% | 1% | 0.3pt |
| Jared Polis | — | 0% | 1% | 0.6pt |
| Mitch Landrieu | — | 1% | — | — |
| Rahm Emanuel | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2.0pt |
| Person AW | — | — | 0% | — |
| Barack Obama | — | 0% | 1% | 0.5pt |
| LeBron James | — | 0% | 0% | 0.4pt |
| Andrew Yang | — | 0% | 1% | 0.4pt |
| Zohran Mamdani | — | 0% | 1% | 0.4pt |
| Ruben Gallego | — | 0% | 1% | 0.2pt |
| Roy Cooper | — | 0% | 1% | 0.5pt |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1.5pt |
| Shawn Fain | — | 1% | — | — |
| Michelle Obama | — | 2% | 1% | 0.5pt |
| Jon Stewart | — | 0% | 2% | 1.8pt |
| Pete Buttigieg | 6% | 5% | 5% | 0.8pt |
| James Talarico | — | 3% | 1% | 1.8pt |
| Person AA | — | — | 0% | — |
| Gavin Newsom | 15% | 14% | 20% | 6.3pt |
| Wes Moore | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1.7pt |
| Person CQ | — | — | 0% | — |
| Person AN | — | — | 0% | — |
| Will Stephen A. Smith be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Person BK | — | — | 0% | — |
| Person R | — | — | 0% | — |
| Person BV | — | — | 0% | — |
| Jon Ossoff | 17% | 17% | 12% | 5.0pt |
| Elizabeth Warren | — | 0% | — | — |
| Kamala Harris | 9% | 7% | 7% | 2.0pt |
| J.B. Pritzker | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1.3pt |
| Graham Platner | — | 0% | — | — |
| Liz Cheney | — | 0% | 1% | 0.6pt |
| Stephen A. Smith | — | 0% | 1% | 0.5pt |
| Phil Murphy | — | 0% | 1% | 0.5pt |
| Will Jamie Dimon be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Chris Murphy | — | 1% | 1% | 0.2pt |
| Mark Cuban | — | 1% | 1% | 0.2pt |
| Hillary Clinton | — | 0% | 1% | 0.5pt |
| Hunter Biden | — | 0% | 1% | 0.2pt |
| Beto O’Rourke | — | 0% | 0% | 0.4pt |
| Cory Booker | — | 1% | 1% | 0.1pt |
| Tim Walz | — | 0% | 0% | 0.4pt |
| Mark Kelly | 3% | 4% | 1% | 3.3pt |
| Will Lebron James be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Gina Raimondo be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Roy Cooper be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Ruben Gallego be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Zohran Mamdani be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Raphael Warnock be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | — | 1% | — | — |
| Will Mark Kelly be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | 4% | 4% | — | 0.4pt |
| Will Rahm Emanuel be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | 3% | 3% | — | 0.2pt |
| Will Wes Moore be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | 2% | 2% | — | 0.2pt |
| Josh Shapiro | 6% | 5% | 5% | 1.3pt |
| Abdul El-Sayed | — | 2% | — | — |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 17% | 16% | 14% | 2.6pt |
| Will Amy Klobuchar be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Jasmine Crockett | — | 0% | 1% | 0.5pt |
| John Fetterman | — | 0% | 1% | 0.4pt |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | — | 0% | 1% | 1.1pt |
| Will Chris Murphy be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | — | 1% | — | — |
| Will Elissa Slotkin be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Andy Beshear be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | 4% | 3% | — | 0.5pt |
| Will J.B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | 2% | 1% | — | 0.8pt |
| Will Jon Stewart be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Ro Khanna be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | — | 2% | — | — |
| Will Barack Obama be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Dwayne Johnson be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Hunter Biden be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Mark Cuban be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | — | 1% | — | — |
| Will Bernie Sanders be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will James Talarico be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | — | 2% | — | — |
| Will Jared Polis be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Hilary Clinton be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Cory Booker be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | — | 1% | — | — |
| Will Michelle Obama be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | — | 2% | — | — |
| Will Beto O'Rourke be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Andy Beshear | 4% | 6% | 2% | 4.2pt |
| Person CM | — | — | 0% | — |
| Will Liz Cheney be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Phil Murphy be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Tim Walz be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will John Fetterman be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | 2% | 1% | — | 1.3pt |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | 17% | 16% | — | 1.5pt |
| Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | 6% | 5% | — | 0.5pt |
| Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | 6% | 5% | — | 1.3pt |
| Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | 9% | 8% | — | 1.0pt |
| Will Jon Ossoff be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | 17% | 17% | — | 0.5pt |
Prices shown as implied probability (%). Spread is the largest gap between platforms for that outcome — a wider spread means the platforms disagree more about the likely result. A spread of 1+ point is stamped.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many platforms track "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028"?
3 platforms currently quote this market: Gemini, Kalshi, Polymarket. Odds Reference aggregates live prices from each and shows them side by side.
What is the current frontrunner for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028"?
"Will Jon Ossoff be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?" is the current frontrunner at an implied probability of 17%, based on the latest prices across tracked platforms.
Do platforms disagree on the price for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028"?
Yes — the largest current disagreement is on "Gavin Newsom", where prices differ by 6.3 percentage points across platforms.
When does "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on November 7, 2028.