Politics
Brazil Presidential Election Odds Compared
2 platforms $71.9K total volume Resolves October 11, 2026 Quoted 13d ago
Cross-Platform Price Comparison
1.6pt spread ≥ 1pt
| Outcome | Gemini | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Person I | — | 0% | — |
| Person J | — | 0% | — |
| Person K | — | 0% | — |
| Person L | — | 0% | — |
| Person N | — | 0% | — |
| Person O | — | 0% | — |
| Person P | — | 0% | — |
| Person Q | — | 0% | — |
| Person R | — | 0% | — |
| Person S | — | 0% | — |
| Person T | — | 0% | — |
| Person U | — | 0% | — |
| Person W | — | 0% | — |
| Person Y | — | 0% | — |
| Person V | — | 0% | — |
| Person X | — | 0% | — |
| Person Z | — | 0% | — |
| Other | — | 0% | — |
| Tereza Cristina | — | 0% | — |
| Geraldo Alckmin | — | 0% | — |
| Romeu Zema | — | 1% | — |
| Helder Barbalho | — | 0% | — |
| Michelle Bolsonaro | — | 2% | — |
| Aldo Rebelo | — | 0% | — |
| Camilo Santana | — | 1% | — |
| Eduardo Leite | — | 0% | — |
| Jair Bolsonaro | — | 1% | — |
| Person M | — | 0% | — |
| Ronaldo Caiado | — | 1% | — |
| Tarcisio de Freitas | 1% | 0% | 0.9pt |
| Renan Santos | 1% | 10% | 9.2pt |
| Fernando Haddad | 1% | 1% | 0.4pt |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 49% | 62% | 12.5pt |
| Ratinho Júnior | 1% | 0% | 0.9pt |
| Eduardo Bolsonaro | — | 0% | — |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 53% | 24% | 29.3pt |
Prices shown as implied probability (%). Spread is the largest gap between platforms for that outcome — a wider spread means the platforms disagree more about the likely result. A spread of 1+ point is stamped.
Resolution criteria
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/ ).
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many platforms track "Brazil Presidential Election"?
2 platforms currently quote this market: Gemini, Polymarket. Odds Reference aggregates live prices from each and shows them side by side.
What is the current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election"?
"Flávio Bolsonaro" is the current frontrunner at an implied probability of 53%, based on the latest prices across tracked platforms.
Do platforms disagree on the price for "Brazil Presidential Election"?
Yes — the largest current disagreement is on "Flávio Bolsonaro", where prices differ by 29.3 percentage points across platforms.
When does "Brazil Presidential Election" resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on October 11, 2026.