Politics
Presidential Election Winner 2028? Odds Compared
3 platforms $71.6K total volume Resolves November 10, 2028 Quoted 13d ago
Cross-Platform Price Comparison
1.6pt spread ≥ 1pt
| Outcome | Gemini | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| :: Unknown | — | 0% | — | — |
| Wes Moore | — | — | 1% | — |
| Gretchen Whitmer | — | — | 1% | — |
| Glenn Youngkin | — | — | 1% | — |
| JB Pritzker | — | — | 1% | — |
| Tulsi Gabbard | — | — | 1% | — |
| Nikki Haley | — | — | 1% | — |
| Ron DeSantis | — | — | 1% | — |
| Tim Walz | — | — | 1% | — |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | — | — | 1% | — |
| Greg Abbott | — | — | 1% | — |
| Elon Musk | — | — | 1% | — |
| LeBron James | — | — | 1% | — |
| Tucker Carlson | — | — | 2% | — |
| Kim Kardashian | — | — | 1% | — |
| Ivanka Trump | — | — | 1% | — |
| Zohran Mamdani | — | — | 1% | — |
| Michelle Obama | — | — | 1% | — |
| Ro Khanna | — | — | 1% | — |
| Thomas Massie | — | — | 1% | — |
| James Talarico | — | — | 1% | — |
| Pete Hegseth | — | — | 1% | — |
| Person Q | — | — | 0% | — |
| Other | — | — | 0% | — |
| Who will win the next presidential election? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Stephen Smith | — | 0% | 1% | 0.6pt |
| Eric Trump | — | — | 1% | — |
| Jalen Brunson | — | — | 1% | — |
| JD Vance | 23% | — | 20% | 2.9pt |
| Josh Shapiro | 5% | — | 3% | 2.3pt |
| Donald Trump | 4% | — | 1% | 2.6pt |
| Marco Rubio | 15% | — | 14% | 1.2pt |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 11% | — | 8% | 2.7pt |
| Gavin Newsom | 10% | — | 12% | 2.0pt |
| Jamie Dimon | — | 0% | 1% | 0.5pt |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5% | — | 2% | 2.7pt |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1% | — | 1% | 0.5pt |
| Kamala Harris | 4% | — | 4% | 0.1pt |
| Andy Beshear | 4% | — | 1% | 3.0pt |
| Jon Ossoff | 12% | — | 7% | 4.9pt |
Prices shown as implied probability (%). Spread is the largest gap between platforms for that outcome — a wider spread means the platforms disagree more about the likely result. A spread of 1+ point is stamped.
Resolution criteria
Who will win the 2028 US presidential election?
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many platforms track "Presidential Election Winner 2028"?
3 platforms currently quote this market: Gemini, Kalshi, Polymarket. Odds Reference aggregates live prices from each and shows them side by side.
What is the current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028"?
"JD Vance" is the current frontrunner at an implied probability of 23%, based on the latest prices across tracked platforms.
Do platforms disagree on the price for "Presidential Election Winner 2028"?
Yes — the largest current disagreement is on "Jon Ossoff", where prices differ by 4.9 percentage points across platforms.
When does "Presidential Election Winner 2028" resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on November 10, 2028.