Politics

Prime Minister of Japan after snap election? Odds Compared

General elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the individual who is the Prime Minister of Japan, as a result of this election. This market will resolve to Sanae Takaichi if she remains Prime Minister as a result of this election. Any other individual must be formally appointed by the Japanese Emperor to qualify. If the results of this election are not officially released by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Japanese government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

2 platforms $304.6K total volume Resolves January 1, 2030 Quoted 53d ago

Cross-Platform Price Comparison

These platforms quote this market with different outcome structures, so no outcome currently has a directly comparable price on two venues. Each platform's own quotes are shown separately below.

Outcome Kalshi
:: JIP0%
:: LDP0%
:: CRA0%
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom?0%
:: DPP0%
Outcome Polymarket
Other0%
Candidate B0%
Candidate C0%
Candidate D0%
Candidate E0%
Candidate F0%
Candidate G0%
Candidate H0%
Candidate I0%
Candidate J0%
Candidate K0%
Candidate L0%
Candidate M0%
Candidate N0%
Candidate P0%
Candidate R0%
Candidate T0%
Candidate Q0%
Candidate X0%
Candidate Z0%
Candidate S0%
Candidate U0%
Candidate W0%
Toshimitsu Motegi0%
Takayuki Kobayashi0%
Sanae Takaichi100%
Yūichirō Tamaki0%
Yōko Kamikawa0%
Hirofumi Yoshimura0%
Fumitake Fujita0%
Taro Kono0%
Shinjirō Koizumi0%
Yoshihiko Noda0%
Tetsuo Saito0%
Candidate O0%
Candidate V0%
Candidate Y0%
Yoshimasa Hayashi0%

Prices shown as implied probability (%). Because the venues define this market's outcomes differently, no cross-venue spread is computed.

Resolution criteria
General elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the individual who is the Prime Minister of Japan, as a result of this election. This market will resolve to Sanae Takaichi if she remains Prime Minister as a result of this election. Any other individual must be formally appointed by the Japanese Emperor to qualify. If the results of this election are not officially released by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Japanese government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently Asked Questions

How many platforms track "Prime Minister of Japan after snap election"?
2 platforms currently quote this market: Kalshi, Polymarket. Odds Reference aggregates live prices from each and shows them side by side.
What is the current frontrunner for "Prime Minister of Japan after snap election"?
"Sanae Takaichi" is the current frontrunner at an implied probability of 100%, based on the latest prices across tracked platforms.
Do platforms disagree on the price for "Prime Minister of Japan after snap election"?
No outcome of this market currently has a directly comparable price on two or more platforms — each venue quotes its own outcome set, so no cross-platform spread is computed.
When does "Prime Minister of Japan after snap election" resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.