Politics
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? Odds Compared
2 platforms $26.6M total volume Resolves December 31, 2026 Quoted 53d ago
Cross-Platform Price Comparison
1.6pt spread ≥ 1pt
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Person C | — | 0% | — |
| Person E | — | 0% | — |
| Person G | — | 0% | — |
| Person I | — | 0% | — |
| Person K | — | 0% | — |
| Person M | — | 0% | — |
| Person O | — | 0% | — |
| Person D | — | 0% | — |
| Person F | — | 0% | — |
| Person H | — | 0% | — |
| Person J | — | 0% | — |
| Person L | — | 0% | — |
| Person N | — | 0% | — |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | — | 38% | — |
| Naftali Bennett | 0% | 11% | 10.5pt |
| Yossi Cohen | 0% | 0% | 0.3pt |
| Gadi Eizenkot | 0% | 41% | 40.9pt |
| Yair Lapid | 0% | 0% | 0.4pt |
| Itamar Ben Gvir | 0% | 1% | 1.2pt |
| Ayelet Shaked | 0% | 0% | 0.3pt |
| Avigdor Lieberman | — | 3% | — |
| Amir Ohana | — | 0% | — |
| Nir Barkat | — | 0% | — |
| Gideon Sa’ar | 0% | 0% | 0.4pt |
| Yoaz Hendel | 0% | 1% | 0.8pt |
| Israel Katz | 0% | 0% | 0.4pt |
| Yariv Levin | 0% | 0% | 0.4pt |
| Benny Gantz | 0% | 0% | 0.4pt |
| Gilad Erdan | — | 0% | — |
| Other | — | 0% | — |
| Moshe Feiglin | 0% | 0% | 0.3pt |
| Yair Golan | 0% | 0% | 0.3pt |
Prices shown as implied probability (%). Spread is the largest gap between platforms for that outcome — a wider spread means the platforms disagree more about the likely result. A spread of 1+ point is stamped.
Resolution criteria
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many platforms track "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election"?
2 platforms currently quote this market: Kalshi, Polymarket. Odds Reference aggregates live prices from each and shows them side by side.
What is the current frontrunner for "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election"?
"Gadi Eizenkot" is the current frontrunner at an implied probability of 41%, based on the latest prices across tracked platforms.
Do platforms disagree on the price for "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election"?
Yes — the largest current disagreement is on "Gadi Eizenkot", where prices differ by 40.9 percentage points across platforms.
When does "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election" resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.