Politics
Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026? Odds Compared
2 platforms $24.7K total volume Resolves January 1, 2027 Quoted 13d ago
Cross-Platform Price Comparison
1.6pt spread ≥ 1pt
| Outcome | Gemini | Kalshi | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| :: Secretary of Homeland Security | — | 0% | — |
| :: Border Patrol Commander-at-Large | — | 0% | — |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 0% | — | — |
| :: CBP Commissioner | 10% | 17% | 6.5pt |
| :: OMB Director | 0% | 0% | 0.0pt |
| :: Chairman of the FCC | 0% | 0% | 0.0pt |
| :: Secretary of the Interior | 0% | 0% | 0.0pt |
| :: Director of National Intelligence | 0% | 0% | 0.0pt |
| :: Deputy Director of the FBI | — | 0% | — |
| :: Deputy Attorney General | 67% | 0% | 67.0pt |
| :: Chief of Staff | 20% | 0% | 20.0pt |
| :: Director of the CIA | 33% | 14% | 18.5pt |
| :: Ambassador to Israel | 28% | 17% | 11.0pt |
| :: Secretary of Energy | 26% | 0% | 26.0pt |
| :: Special Envoy to the Middle East | 24% | 0% | 24.0pt |
| :: White House Press Secretary | 25% | 0% | 25.0pt |
| :: Secretary of Defense | 22% | 35% | 12.5pt |
| :: Secretary of Education | 20% | 0% | 20.0pt |
| :: Secretary of Agriculture | 22% | 0% | 22.0pt |
| :: Secretary of Housing and Urban Development | 0% | 15% | 15.0pt |
| :: United States Trade Representative | 0% | 14% | 14.0pt |
| :: Senior Counselor to the President for Trade and Manufacturing | 0% | 15% | 15.0pt |
| :: SBA Administrator | 0% | 0% | 0.0pt |
| :: White House Border Czar | 0% | 0% | 0.0pt |
| :: Secretary of Veterans Affairs | 0% | 19% | 18.5pt |
| :: Secretary of State | 0% | 0% | 0.0pt |
| :: Attorney General | 0% | 0% | 0.0pt |
| :: Secretary of the Treasury | 0% | 14% | 14.5pt |
| :: Acting Administrator of the US DOGE Service | 62% | 46% | 16.0pt |
| :: Director of the FBI | 59% | 0% | 59.0pt |
| :: Secretary of Commerce | 34% | 0% | 34.0pt |
| :: HHS Secretary | 32% | 0% | 31.5pt |
| :: EPA Administrator | 28% | 18% | 10.5pt |
| :: Deputy Chief of Staff | — | 0% | — |
| :: CMS Administrator | 0% | 0% | 0.0pt |
| :: Secretary of Labor | 0% | 0% | 0.0pt |
| Karoline Leavitt | 0% | — | — |
| :: Secretary of Transportation | 9% | 0% | 9.0pt |
| :: FHFA Director | 30% | 0% | 30.0pt |
| Mike Huckabee | 21% | — | — |
| Peter Navarro | 20% | — | — |
| Kash Patel | 21% | — | — |
| Marco Rubio | 12% | — | — |
| Sean Duffy | 21% | — | — |
| Howard Lutnick | 28% | — | — |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 32% | — | — |
| Jamieson Greer | 19% | — | — |
| Linda McMahon | 22% | — | — |
| Brooke Rollins | 23% | — | — |
| Mehmet Oz | 20% | — | — |
| Scott Turner | 12% | — | — |
| Steve Witkoff | 27% | — | — |
| Pete Hegseth | 33% | — | — |
| Lee Zeldin | 23% | — | — |
| Brendan Carr | 19% | — | — |
| Amy Gleason | 45% | — | — |
| Todd Blanche | 92% | — | — |
| Scott Bessent | 15% | — | — |
| Bill Pulte | 30% | — | — |
| Tom Homan | 19% | — | — |
| Susie Wiles | 28% | — | — |
| John Ratcliffe | 21% | — | — |
| Stephen Miller | 16% | — | — |
| Russell Vought | 14% | — | — |
| Doug Burgum | 21% | — | — |
| Rodney Scott | 19% | — | — |
| Chris Wright | 29% | — | — |
| Doug Collins | 21% | — | — |
| Lori Chavez-DeRemer | 0% | — | — |
| Pam Bondi | 0% | — | — |
| Kelly Loeffler | 24% | — | — |
| Kash Patel:: Director of the FBI | — | 23% | — |
Prices shown as implied probability (%). Spread is the largest gap between platforms for that outcome — a wider spread means the platforms disagree more about the likely result. A spread of 1+ point is stamped.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many platforms track "Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026"?
2 platforms currently quote this market: Gemini, Kalshi. Odds Reference aggregates live prices from each and shows them side by side.
What is the current frontrunner for "Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026"?
"Todd Blanche" is the current frontrunner at an implied probability of 92%, based on the latest prices across tracked platforms.
Do platforms disagree on the price for "Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026"?
Yes — the largest current disagreement is on ":: Deputy Attorney General", where prices differ by 67.0 percentage points across platforms.
When does "Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026" resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.