Futures Odds: Exchanges vs Sportsbooks
The same event, priced two different ways. Prediction-market exchanges set prices through open trading; sportsbooks price futures with their own risk models and vig. Our data shows they routinely disagree by several percentage points on the identical outcome — these are the widest gaps right now.
Widest gaps right now
As of SEP 26 · 9:36 PM ET| Event | Outcome | Exchange | Best book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA Championship | NBA Championship Oklahoma City Thunder | 19.5% | 27.8% | +8.3pt |
| Super Bowl | Super Bowl Los Angeles Rams | 8.5% | 16.7% | +8.2pt |
| World Series | World Series Los Angeles Dodgers | 28.5% | 35.1% | +6.6pt |
| NBA Championship | NBA Championship San Antonio Spurs | 20.5% | 26.3% | +5.8pt |
| World Series | World Series Boston Red Sox | 2.5% | 6.3% | +3.8pt |
| Super Bowl | Super Bowl Buffalo Bills | 6.5% | 9.1% | +2.6pt |
Every comparison, by event
- Super Bowl Odds Gemini, Novig, Polymarket vs BetMGM, BetRivers, DraftKings, FanDuel +8.2pt edge 32 entrants
- World Series Odds Gemini, Novig, Polymarket vs BetMGM, BetRivers, DraftKings, FanDuel +6.6pt edge 30 entrants
- NBA Championship Odds Polymarket vs BetMGM, BetRivers, FanDuel +8.3pt edge 30 entrants